© National Audit Office 2024

Investigation into the costs of the UK–Rwanda Partnership

Home Office

Session 2023-24
1 March 2024
HC 577

The National Audit Office (NAO) scrutinises public spending for Parliament and is independent of government and the civil service. We help Parliament hold government to account and we use our insights to help people who manage and govern public bodies improve public services.

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Report by the Comptroller and Auditor General

Ordered by the House of Commons
to be printed on 29 February 2024

This report has been prepared under Section 6 of the National Audit Act 1983 for presentation to the House of Commons in accordance with Section 9 of the Act

Gareth Davies
Comptroller and Auditor General
National Audit Office

28 February 2024

HC 577 | £10.00

Investigations

We conduct investigations to establish the underlying facts in circumstances where concerns have been raised with us, or in response to intelligence that we have gathered through our wider work.

In response to a request from the Chairs of the Public Accounts and Home Affairs Committees, the Comptroller and Auditor General has produced a factual report covering the costs incurred to date in setting up the Migration and Economic Development Partnership, and the basis on which future costs would be incurred when the partnership is operational.

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The National Audit Office study team consisted of:

Richard Baynham, Michael Burke, Emily Crowston and Alice Hamilton, under the direction of Oliver Lodge.

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What this investigation is about

1 In April 2022, the government announced that it had agreed a Migration and Economic Development Partnership (the partnership) with the Government of Rwanda. The partnership falls under the government’s third country asylum processing policy, which is a process whereby individuals identified as being in the UK illegally, or seeking asylum after arriving illegally, are relocated to a safe third country. Under the partnership, the UK government provides development funding to Rwanda and will meet processing and integration costs for each relocated person. The Home Office is responsible for administering the partnership.

2 On 8 December 2023, the Chairs of the Public Accounts and Home Affairs Committees wrote to the Comptroller and Auditor General (C&AG) to express their concern at the lack of information available to Parliament in relation to spending on the Rwanda partnership. They asked whether the National Audit Office would consider the costs of the partnership, and its value for money. The C&AG decided to produce a factual report covering the costs incurred to date and the Home Office’s estimate of potential costs when the partnership is operational. This report does not conclude on value for money, given that this would rest on whether the partnership deters individuals from making illegal journeys to claim asylum in the UK.

Scope of the work

3 This report sets out the direct financial consequences of the Migration and Economic Development Partnership with Rwanda. It covers:

the costs incurred to date and the basis on which future costs would be incurred when the partnership is operational; and

the Home Office’s oversight and approach to monitoring the partnership.

4 For the purposes of this report, we use the phrase ‘the partnership’ to refer to the agreement reached through the Migration and Economic Development Partnership and the provisional treaty agreed with Rwanda in December 2023 to establish an asylum partnership. Our report does not cover the possible financial implications for other departments, such as the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office. We have not considered the wider costs of implementing the Illegal Migration Act 2023 in this report, such as the cost of expanding detention facilities necessary to hold people before they are relocated.

5 As at February 2024, the UK government had not finalised revised arrangements with the Government of Rwanda to reflect the provisional treaty, so the payment schedule may be revised. The Home Office considers the operation of the partnership as part of its wider modelling of the Illegal Migration Act. At the time of our work, the Home Office was assessing a wide range of options on the timing and number of people who could be relocated. The Home Office intends to review and update its plans as it progresses arrangements to relocate people to Rwanda. These plans are based on a series of assumptions about what could happen when the partnership is operational and, as a result, are inherently uncertain at this point. Given the level of uncertainty, we have set out the payments and costs that the UK government is committed to make and the basis on which future costs would be incurred. Our report is based on information provided by the Home Office in February 2024.

Summary

Key findings

6 In implementing the partnership, the Home Office would make two types of direct payments to the Government of Rwanda. These are:

payments to the Economic Transformation and Integration Fund (ETIF), which is designed to support economic growth in Rwanda; and

payments to cover asylum processing and operational costs for individuals relocated to Rwanda. The Home Office has agreed to pay a five-year integration package for each relocated person, which covers accommodation, essential items such as food, medical services, education and other integration programmes. The partnership runs until 13 April 2027, and the Home Office is planning to relocate people up to March 2028. On this basis, it would potentially continue to make payments under the partnership until March 2033 (five years after the final person was relocated).

7 Under the partnership, the Home Office would pay £370 million into the ETIF and then further amounts depending on the number of people relocated to Rwanda. As at February 2024, the Home Office had paid £220 million to the Government of Rwanda under this mechanism, and has agreed to make further payments of £50 million each in April 2024, 2025 and 2026. The UK government has also agreed to make ETIF payments that are dependent on the number of individuals relocated:

£120 million once 300 people have been relocated; and

payments of £20,000 per individual relocated (paragraphs 2.1 to 2.3).

8 The Home Office would also pay a total of £151,000 per individual relocated to cover the asylum processing and operational costs. The payments include an integration package and are made in stages over five years if an individual remains in Rwanda. If a relocated individual decides to leave Rwanda, the UK would stop payments for that individual but would pay the Government of Rwanda a one-off £10,000 per individual to help facilitate their voluntary departure. As at February 2024, the Home Office had paid £20 million to the Government of Rwanda as an advance payment against which future processing and operational costs will be offset (paragraphs 2.4 to 2.7).

9 The Home Office is also incurring direct costs in setting up and operating the partnership. These include staff costs in managing and overseeing the partnership, costs of responding to legal challenges, and travel and escort costs for individuals relocated to Rwanda. As at February 2024, the Home Office had incurred costs of £20 million, which it expects to rise to £28 million by the end of 2023-24. The Home Office estimates that it will also incur further costs of approximately £1 million per year in staff costs and £11,000 per individual for flight costs. It will also incur costs to escort individuals to Rwanda. These include training costs of £12.6 million in 2024-25 and £1 million per year thereafter in fixed costs, plus further escorting costs which are dependent on the number of flights required. These Home Office costs do not include the wider costs from implementing the Illegal Migration Act, such as the cost of providing sufficient detention facilities to hold people before they are relocated (paragraphs 2.9 to 2.13).

10 The Home Office has established monitoring arrangements to test that the partnership is working and to oversee payments. It recognises that the partnership is a high-risk and novel policy. It has set up committees to review the implementation of the partnership and advise whether the terms of the agreement are being adhered to, including the relocation process and treatment of relocated individuals. It is also establishing controls to provide assurance on the completeness and accuracy of payments (paragraphs 3.1 and 3.2).

Part One

Background information

1.1 In April 2022, the government announced its Migration and Economic Development Partnership with the Government of Rwanda (the partnership). The partnership forms part of the government’s third country asylum processing policy.1 Under this policy, the government aims to deter dangerous and illegal journeys to the UK and disrupt the business model of people smugglers. The policy allows for an individual identified as being in the UK illegally, or seeking asylum after arriving via an illegal route, to be relocated to a safe third country. The third country asylum processing policy sits alongside a range of other policies designed to reduce illegal migration.2

1.2 Under the terms of the partnership, the Rwandan government will process the asylum claims of individuals who are deemed inadmissible under the UK’s current asylum system. It covers people who have arrived in the UK via illegal routes since 1 January 2022. The partnership runs for five years until April 2027, and may be renewed. Either government has the right to terminate the partnership at any point.3

1.3 In 2023, Parliament passed the Illegal Migration Act. The main provisions of the Act relate to the removal or relocation of individuals who have arrived illegally in the UK. These include a duty on the Home Secretary to remove people who have arrived illegally. This duty and some other provisions of the Illegal Migration Act had not come into force at the time of our work.

1.4 Figure 1 sets out the key events and decisions in respect of the partnership since April 2022. The government’s original intention was to start flights to Rwanda in June 2022. However, the European Court of Human Rights granted an injunction, which meant the removal of people to Rwanda did not take place. During 2022 and 2023, judicial reviews against the Home Office culminated in a November 2023 ruling by the UK Supreme Court that Rwanda was not a safe country because of the risk that it would not decide asylum claims properly and, as a result, might send refugees back to countries where their life or freedom would be threatened (“refoulement”). It therefore concluded that sending people seeking asylum to Rwanda was unlawful. In response to this judgment, the UK government signed a provisional treaty with the Government of Rwanda on 5 December 2023 and introduced the Safety of Rwanda Bill. In January 2024, the Bill passed its third reading in the House of Commons but had not received Royal Assent at the time of our work.

1.5 Under the partnership, the UK is responsible for the initial screening of individuals and the safe transfer of an individual to Rwanda. Upon arrival, the Government of Rwanda is responsible for processing claims for asylum.4 After deciding claims, the Rwandan government would offer those granted asylum the right to remain in Rwanda. Under the provisional treaty, relocated individuals who are not granted asylum would also have the right to remain in Rwanda, on the same terms as successful applicants. Rwanda is responsible for creating a safe environment for migrants to start a new life, providing education, employment opportunities, accommodation and support integrating into the country. In return, the UK government provides economic development funding to Rwanda and will pay processing and operational costs (including integration costs) for each relocated person for a period of five years.

1.6 The costs to the Home Office of relocating individuals to Rwanda under the partnership are inherently uncertain and subject to the following factors.

The number of individuals who are relocated to Rwanda: this depends on the number of people arriving through illegal routes; the Home Secretary’s duty to remove people; and the willingness and capacity of Rwanda to process applications and accommodate people who are relocated. At the time of our work, the Home Office was seeking approval for a revised relocation plan and was modelling the potential costs of a wide range of scenarios.

The proportion of people who choose to stay in Rwanda: if an individual voluntarily leaves Rwanda, the UK would cease making payments towards operational costs, but would pay a one-off sum to help facilitate a voluntary departure. The Home Office’s working assumption is that 10% of people who are relocated may voluntarily leave.

1.7 HM Treasury outlines the expectations and duties of accounting officers in its guidance Managing Public Money. Accounting officers are required to consider significant spending decisions against the four public spending standards: regularity; propriety; feasibility; and value for money.5

1.8 In April 2022, the Permanent Secretary of the Home Office assessed the third country asylum processing policy, which the Rwanda partnership falls under, against the four standards. The Permanent Secretary concluded that tests of regularity, propriety and feasibility could be met, although there were significant risks across all areas that would need to be managed. However, he was not able to conclude that the policy would be value for money on the basis that there was insufficient evidence that it would deter enough individuals from making illegal journeys to the UK to outweigh the upfront costs and additional spending on processing and relocating individuals abroad. The Permanent Secretary therefore requested a ministerial direction to proceed with the policy, which was provided by the then Home Secretary on 13 April 2022. The then Home Secretary recognised the value-for-money assessment but stated that she was confident that the policy was the best chance to produce a deterrent effect, and that the absence of sufficient evidence for this should not delay the delivery of the policy. As at February 2024, this ministerial direction remained in place.

1 The Home Office introduced the third country asylum processing policy under the Nationality and Borders Act 2022.

2 These include intelligence sharing, agreements to return foreign nationals to their home countries, a crackdown on illegal working, and voluntary partnerships with social media companies over online content.

3 The termination would take effect three months after the point of notification.

4 Any individual who does not make an asylum claim on arrival in Rwanda will be offered an alternative form of leave.

5 The tests are regularity (i.e. the proposal has legal basis, Parliamentary authority, and HM Treasury authorisation; and is compatible with the agreed spending budgets); propriety (i.e. the proposal meets the high standards of public conduct and relevant Parliamentary control procedures and expectations); feasibility (the proposal can be implemented accurately, sustainably and to the intended timetable); and value for money (i.e. in comparison to alternative proposals or doing nothing, the proposal delivers value for the Exchequer as a whole).

Part Two

Financial implications

Economic Transformation and Integration Fund costs

2.1 In signing the Migration and Economic Development Partnership (the partnership), the UK government agreed to make fixed payments into the Economic Transformation and Integration Fund (ETIF). These payments are intended to support economic development and growth in Rwanda and are independent of the number of people relocated to Rwanda. The payments total £370 million and are paid to the following timetable:

£120 million in April 2022 (paid);

£100 million in April 2023 (paid);

£50 million in April 2024;

£50 million in April 2025; and

£50 million in April 2026.

2.2 The UK government also agreed to make further payments into the ETIF linked to the relocation of individuals:

£20,000 per individual relocated; and

a further £120 million once 300 people have been relocated.

2.3 Although the ETIF is intended to be used to support economic growth in Rwanda, the Home Office does not classify the payments as overseas development assistance (ODA). This is because accepted definitions of ODA require the main objective of the funding to be the development and welfare of the country receiving it. As the partnership focuses on the relocation to Rwanda of people whose asylum claims are not being considered by the UK, the Home Office concluded that the payments into the ETIF are unlikely to be eligible as ODA.

Asylum processing and operational costs

2.4 In addition to the payments into the ETIF, the Home Office agreed to make payments to Rwanda to cover the asylum processing and operational costs for each individual relocated, and to provide an integration package for each relocated person. These payments can potentially last for five years and total £150,874 per individual, with the total annual payment decreasing over the five-year period:

Year 1: £45,262 (this includes £11,000 for the asylum assessment);

Year 2: £37,718;

Year 3: £30,175;

Year 4: £22,632; and

Year 5: £15,087.

2.5 The payment schedule may be revised further as the UK government finalises arrangements with the Government of Rwanda. For example, in January 2024, in response to revisions to the provisional treaty agreed with the Rwandan government, the Home Office agreed to pay a further £100 per year (up to £500 in total) per individual as a contribution towards their healthcare costs.

2.6 If a relocated individual decides to leave Rwanda voluntarily, the UK would stop payments for that individual but would pay the Government of Rwanda a one-off £10,000 per individual to help facilitate their voluntary departure.

2.7 In April 2022, the Home Office made a one-off advance payment of £20 million, against which future processing and operational costs will be netted off. In practice, this means that the UK will not pay any further processing or operational costs until these exceed £20 million. All future payments relating to individuals will be paid quarterly in arrears. after the UK receives a quarterly monitoring report.

Other costs associated with the partnership

2.8 The Home Office has incurred direct costs in setting up the partnership, and would also incur costs once the partnership is operating. We have summarised the Home Office’s estimates of these costs but have not sought to assess the robustness or completeness of its assessment.

Direct Home Office costs

2.9 As at February 2024, the Home Office had incurred the following costs in developing the partnership:

around £2 million of direct staff costs – with 11.6 full-time equivalent staff working on the partnership;

£2.3 million in legal fees (the legal fees do not include claimants’ costs); and

£15.3 million in set-up costs for escorting people to Rwanda and providing training facilities. The Home Office estimates that escorting costs will total £23.5 million by the end of 2023-24.

2.10 The Home Office estimates that future costs would be around:

£1 million per year in staff costs from 2024-25;

£11,000 per relocated individual for flights (including chartering and fuel) to travel to Rwanda; and

£12.6 million for training escorts in 2024-25 and then £1 million per year in future fixed costs relating to escorting. There will be further costs of providing escorts to relocate individuals, the amount depending on the number of flights required.

The Home Office has recognised that it may need to use a non-commercial flight operator and airport to remove people from the UK, and plans to undertake works to improve security arrangements.

2.11 At this point, the Home Office’s estimates are uncertain as they are sensitive to planning assumptions – such as the number of relocated people on each flight to Rwanda. The Home Office also recognises that it may need to hire more staff or redeploy people from other work.

2.12 Other costs may arise through the partnership, although the Home Office does not expect these costs to be significant. These include:

those resulting from Article 19 of the provisional treaty, which states that the UK will resettle a portion of Rwanda’s most vulnerable refugees. The Home Office is working with the Rwandan government on the details and has not yet determined how many vulnerable refugees it could resettle, or the potential costs;6

costs for the training and development of Rwandan officials;

costs of monitoring and handling complaints, which includes inspections;

costs resulting from out of country court/tribunal proceedings – for example when a person is relocated to Rwanda, they may still have proceedings in the UK which can be heard from another country virtually; and

costs of the support team for monitoring the implementation of the partnership (paragraph 3.1).

Wider costs

2.13 When the Illegal Migration Act 2023 is implemented, the Home Secretary will have a duty to remove people arriving in the UK who are subject to the Act. The Home Office expects that most people removed under the Act will be detained before they are relocated. It has not yet worked out the financial implications of providing the necessary capacity in its detention estate.

6 The Home Office told us that any costs incurred by resettling Rwandan refugees would be covered from existing UK Resettlement Scheme budgets.

Part Three

Monitoring and oversight

Monitoring arrangements

3.1 The Home Office recognises that the partnership is a high-risk and novel policy, and has established mechanisms to test that it is working. These include the following arrangements.

A Joint Committee to provide a forum for the UK and Rwandan governments to review the implementation of the partnership, exchange information, discuss good practice and resolve technical or administrative issues.7 The Joint Committee will meet every month for the first six months after the treaty has come into force, and once every six months after this. The Joint Committee can commission an in-depth report to review spending against stated outcomes and assurances.

A Monitoring Committee to monitor the relocation process and both governments’ implementation of their obligations in the provisional treaty. This includes reporting on conditions in Rwanda, accommodation, processing of asylum claims and the treatment of relocated individuals.8 The Committee will advise on the steps it considers appropriate to ensure that the provisions of the agreement are adhered to in practice. It is composed of eight independent members and is intended to have unfettered access to locations, officials and data. The Monitoring Committee met in December 2023 and agreed a revised terms of reference and an initial monitoring plan. Its findings and any recommendations will be reported to the Joint Committee. For at least the first three months after relocations start, the Monitoring Committee will have enhanced responsibilities to monitor activity daily, to ensure rapid identification of, and response to, any shortcomings.9

3.2 The Home Office has also established monitoring arrangements for each payment stream (see Appendix Two for more details).

Economic Transformation and Integration Fund: The Home Office recognised the need to manage the risk of fraud, bribery and corruption, and has put mitigations in place, including a liaison officer and annual audit.

Asylum processing and operational costs: To assure the Home Office of the completeness and accuracy of payments, Rwanda will need to submit a quarterly monitoring report (within 45 days of the quarter end) and an audited annual report, no later than six months after the end of each financial year. The Home Office also has the right to commission additional audits if it has concerns.

Pausing or terminating the agreement

3.3 Either the UK government or Rwandan government can activate a break clause at any point, and the termination would take effect three months after the point of notification. The agreement may also be paused as a result of a court order which prevents its lawful operation.10 In the event of a pause, planned  payments to the ETIF would be delayed by the duration of the pause.

3.4 If the UK government activates the break clause:

the UK would not have to make any further payments under the ETIF from the date the break clause was activated;

the UK would continue to honour future payments associated with the support and integration of individuals already relocated; and

no payments previously made (including those to the ETIF or in respect of processing and operational costs, including any advance payments) would be recoverable.

3.5 If the Rwandan government activates the break clause:

the UK reserves the right to request the re-imbursement (on a monthly pro rata basis) of payments made under the ETIF in the year that the break clause was activated. No payments made in previous years would be recoverable; and

the UK would continue to honour future payments associated with the support and integration of individuals already relocated.

7 The Joint Committee is made up of standing members who are senior officials of the UK and Rwandan governments with responsibility for areas related to the partnership.

8 The Committee will monitor the relocation process, including the initial screening and decision-making in the UK and the information provided by the UK to Rwanda. This includes, with the consent of the relocated individual, observing interviews, hearings and appeals in both the UK and Rwanda.

9 This is from the date relocated individuals in the UK are notified that they are being removed under this agreement.

10 If an order issued by a court of the UK or Rwanda prevents the lawful operation or implementation of the transfer arrangements, the period during which the transfer arrangements cannot be implemented lawfully would not count towards the five-year duration of the agreement.

Appendix One

Our investigative approach

Scope

1 On 8 December 2023, the Chairs of the Public Accounts and Home Affairs Committees wrote to the Comptroller and Auditor General (C&AG) to express their concern at the lack of information available to Parliament in relation to spending on the partnership with the Government of Rwanda. They asked whether the National Audit Office would consider the costs of the partnership, and its value for money.

2 The C&AG decided to produce a factual report covering the costs already incurred and the Home Office’s estimate of potential costs when the partnership is operational. This report does not conclude on value for money, given that this would rest on whether the partnership deters individuals from making illegal journeys to claim asylum in the UK.

3 This report sets out the direct financial consequences of the Migration and Economic Development Partnership with the Government of Rwanda. It covers:

the costs incurred to date and the basis on which future costs would be incurred when the partnership is operational; and

the Home Office’s oversight and approach to monitoring the partnership.

4 Our report sets out the facts. We have not made a value-for-money judgement on the Rwanda partnership, nor have we undertaken an assessment of the accuracy and completeness of the Home Office’s cost estimates or assumptions. We have not examined the progress made by the Home Office to deliver the aims and objectives of the partnership, nor its management of the partnership. Our report does not cover the possible financial implications for other departments, such as the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

5 We have collated financial data from the Home Office. We sought to establish the UK government’s financial obligations under the partnership and the basis on which future costs would be incurred, but we have not undertaken any significant financial analysis. We discussed with the Home Office what had been included and excluded in estimated costs and the basis on which they are presented, including the underlying assumptions. We have not audited any of the Home Office’s assumptions or challenged the basis of these. The report therefore presents the Home Office’s commitments and the basis of future costs as at February 2024.

6 As at February 2024, the UK government had not finalised revised arrangements with the Government of Rwanda to reflect the provisional treaty, so the payment schedule may still be revised. The Home Office considers the operation of the partnership as part of its wider modelling of the Illegal Migration Act. At the time of our work, the Home Office was assessing a wide range of options on the timing and number of people who could be relocated. The Home Office intends to review and update its plans as it progresses arrangements to relocate people to Rwanda. These plans are based on a series of assumptions about what could happen when the partnership is operational and, as a result, are inherently uncertain at this point. Given the level of uncertainty, we have set out the payments and costs that the UK government is committed to make and the basis on which future costs would be incurred.

Methods

7 We conducted our fieldwork between January and February 2024.

8 We interviewed relevant officials from the Home Office to get an overview of the main costs and to test our understanding of the partnership. We covered a discrete set of topics, including: the costs incurred to date; the basis of the Home Office’s assessment of future costs; and its oversight and approach to monitoring payments and costs. Following the interviews, we followed up with Home Office officials to clarify our understanding. Meetings took place in person or via Microsoft Teams.

9 We reviewed documents provided by the Home Office to establish the financial implications of the partnership. The documents we reviewed included:

the Note Verbale (the agreement between the UK government and the Government of Rwanda) signed in April 2022, which is a memorandum of understanding regarding the financial arrangements for the partnership;

the provisional Rwanda treaty, published in December 2023;

the basis of the Home Office’s estimates of current and future costs relating to the partnership, and supporting documents;

the Home Office’s accounting officer assessment of the policy; and

publicly available information about the partnership.

Appendix Two

Further detail on payments to the Government of Rwanda

1 We have provided further detail on the nature and conditions of payments for the ETIF and asylum processing and operational costs (Figure 2 and Figure 3).

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